Canada’s Globe and Mail recently ran a decent survey that suggests that global export markets might be headed back into first gear after an abrupt move into reverse and neutral in the past twenty-four months. The article suggests that it’s global government stimulus plans that are responsible for programs that are spurring “demand and production in economies around the world,” although “the turnaround is somewhat uneven, and in some countries import growth is dramatically outpacing increases in exports, but gains in sales abroad are also expected to pick up as the worldwide recovery solidifies.” Still, in many parts of the world, exports are down 10%, 15%, and even 20% from similar periods a year earlier, despite improved Q409 numbers. Global procurement and supply chain teams should pay particularly close attention to these numbers — and what’s driving them — in large part because unanticipated 2010 demand could quickly throw off planning forecasts and estimates at all levels in the supply chain, creating disruptions.
Still, it’s not worth banking on a resurging global export boom just yet. “With the exception of China, where not-yet-started infrastructure projects will mean the effects of government largesse are felt longer than in other nations … many key economies are so dependent on stimulus spending that it’s too soon to gauge the staying power of their recoveries,” notes an expert in the article. The volatility inherent in the situation has the potential to create not just commodity swings, but currency risk as well…
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